College football season has officially kicked off! I for one will be glued to my TV this weekend watching games non stop. There is another game that gets officially kicked off this Labor Day Weekend, political campaigns. While campaigning has now become a year round sport, traditionally Labor Day Weekend was the supposed kick off for full swing campaigning. Whatever the start date it is officially underway.
Like it or not you are about to be bombarded with ads telling you this person is a Commie pinko liberal or that person wants to cut off Senior Adults retirement and give big business a free reign. Your mail box is going to be filled with fliers showing smiling politicians flanked by their beautifully perfect families. Even your telephone will ring at night with various celebrities telling you who to vote for. This past year I have hung up on Sarah Palin and Pat Boone. Well, not actually them but their recorded voice. This invasion into our privacy will not stop until after the election. Much like Alabama fans arguing with Auburn fans the sport of politics promises to give us a contentious fall. I predict that this will be one of the nastiest campaigns in memory. For what it is worth here are some thoughts.
Republicans sensing they might regain Congress will make the economy the number one issue. We are seeing some very positive things in this recovery. Consumer confidence has shown a recent uptick. Spending surpassed expectations and was ahead of last years same time comparison. The Stock Market while still volatile remains above 10K. Housing appears to have finally hit the bottom and may well be on the way up. Yet despite positive signs all you hear about is negativity. This will not change as we go into the full fledged campaign season. Expect Republicans to focus on the weak economy as a means to rally support to their side. With unemployment still well above 9% it will be hard to convince Americans that we are in recovery and that the recent legislation pushed forward by Democrats has helped. Frankly Republicans don’t want the economy to get better before the election.
Democrats out of desperation will strike back with fear mongering charges. Polls are showing a wave of discontent may well wash the Democrats out of power. Don’t count on that party to take that news lying down. They have a huge financial war chest to spend on this campaign. Here is how I predict their message will sound. First, blame it all on Bush. It was worse than we thought. It is all Bush’s fault. Even though polls suggest this tactic is not working Democrats can’t help themselves when it comes to bashing Bush. The next attack from Democrats will be to continue to demonize the rich and big business. This tactic has worked for them repeatedly since FDR and does indeed work with many. After all who really likes the rich kid? Who isn’t angry at big business and big banks? Democrats will play up their belief that they represent the common man much better than the fat cat Republicans. I find it funny that from our Democratic millionaire president on down to nearly every Democratic member of Congress they are part of the wealthy class. In politics however it is not what you do but what you say that seems to matter. The bottom line is that Democrats, who are very good at campaigning, will not go down without a fight.
Americans tired of the way things have gone will indeed send Washington a message. I am not sure the Republicans will win both the House and Senate. They will gain significant seats. What they will miss is the real message Americans are sending Washington, we are tired of nothing happening. It is not so much that the country is turning Republican as it is they are turning away from Democrats. In the same way Barrack Obama won because he was not George Bush. Americans voted against something more than they voted for something. I predict the same will happen this time. However I hold little hope that things will really change in Washington. Republicans and Democrats alike just don’t get it when it comes to the mood of the country.
If Republicans win big expect the Stock Market to climb and business to boom. Whether it is fair or not earned or not, Wall Street and Big Business hates this current administration. As a result they have sat on the side lines waiting for a change in policy and direction. They fear the new health care plan and how it will tax them. They are holding onto tons of money waiting for a more business friendly environment before aggressively moving forward. The day after the election if the winds of change have blown through the halls of Congress you can expect the economy to start rebounding much more quickly.
Not long ago I was talking to a small businessman about the fall election and what his hopes were. He made an interesting comment. He said, “I hope the Republicans take control of the House the way they did during the Clinton presidency. That time was the best time for my business.” Could the same thing happen all over again? Many business owners are hoping for that repeat. I am not so sure.
So what does this mean for your church? Like all election cycles it means we are leaders have to be careful. No doubt I will get in trouble from some for the things I have written. You as a pastor can expect much the same if you step on the political toes of your members. On moral issues we are on solid ground. It is pretty hard to argue against things like abortion, gambling, etc. It gets harder to argue for or against one economic theory over another. Yet as a pastor you cannot just sit back and pretend the political football is not being kicked. So what would I do if I were you? Well….
Preach the Word! Your members are going to hear a ton of negative news. Give them something positive. We need hope not despair. No one in Washington or wanting to go to Washington can really give that hope. Jesus can! So, point people to the cross. It is going to be a volatile time filled with uncertainty. Point people to the things that are certain and solid. We should view this upcoming campaign season as a perfect time for our message to fall on eager ears.
Encourage your members to vote just don’t tell them how to vote. My position is that if you have not voted you don’t get to complain. So, I am voting so I can continue to complain! Seriously, as Christian we should be the model citizens and that includes going to the polls and voting.
Realize that whether Democrats or Republicans win God is still on his throne. I hate to lose even in politics. Yet down through the years as my candidates or my favorite political party has lost I have noticed that life goes on. I am not saying this election does not matter because it does. I am simply saying that my hopes, my plans and my actions will not be dictated by an election. Our joy is to be in Jesus not our favorite politician. Despite what happens at the polls the sun will come up the next day and God will still be on his throne.
Well that is my view and my take what is yours? I plan on watching a lot of football in the next few weeks. When political ads come on I plan on going for another Diet Coke or switching channels. I know how I am voting, Sooners baby all the way! Beat those Horns!
Sooner Red than dead,
Mark Brooks
Founder and President
The Charis Group
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