The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself

FDR is famous for rallying the country during The Depression by saying, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  I will let the historians figure out if he was successful or not but it did rally the nation at the time.  Once again we need someone to rise up and say that to a fearful America.

We seem to be poised to swallow every fearful and negative piece of news that comes along.  Have you heard the recent news of how we are really headed into a depression and that the Stock Market is about to crash?  The Hindenburg Omen is gaining a lot of attention as a predictor that the Market is about to crash.  Jim Miekka who writes a little known newsletter supposedly came up with an analytical model that would predict a future crash of the Market.  It is named Hindenburg after the famed 1937 German passenger airship disaster.

The Hindenburg Omen is a strange technical analysis pattern that supposedly portends a market crash.  It tracks various data to arrive at a predictive conclusion.  Brian Wesbury wrote, ” it requires at least 2.2% of the market’s stocks to hit a new annual high at the same time at least 2.2% hit a new annual low, while the MaClellan Oscillator falls and the markets 10-week moving average is rising.  And, remember, the number of new highs cannot be more than twice the new lows.”  Confused?  I am but then I don’t have a financial degree.  Nor does the supposed creator Jim Miekka who came up with the theory.

The only thing wrong with the theory is that it is just that, a theory.  The Wall Street Journal states “that significant stock market declines have followed  the indicator just 25% of the time.”  You know even a broke watch is right twice a day.

Listen again to what Brian Wesbury wrote.  He wrote, “Supposedly, this Hindenburg Omen has predicted every market crash since 1985.  Unfortunately, it has also issued many false signals It also seems to be a severe case of backfitting.  Some things appear to work for awhile and then just don’t anymore because they were just coincidence.  This is like saying the Major League Baseball team with the most ex-Chicago Cubs on the roster always loses the World Series.  This was true until 2001, but is no longer.  However, it fits the bias of many baseball fans – the Cubs are cursed.

Despite all of this, one of the TV hosts afflicted with the worst case of Economic Hypochondria, Glenn Beck of Fox, decided to highlight the Hindenburg Omen on his show late last week.  For the record, I like Glenn Beck.  I like the bootstrap story of his life.  I like his near daily disscusion of the spiritual side of life.  I like his conservative world view.

But, when it comes to the economy, he seems willing to grab onto anything that is negative.  We agree with Mr. Beck that government is growing and that this hurts the economy.  But, this does not mean that the earth will be scorched and the economy will not grow.  It does not mean that you should buy gold and head for the hills.  Just because you dislike the party or person in power does not mean that the economy will tank.  The Hindenburg Omen is a bunch of mumbo-jumbo malarkey.  I’m sorry Glenn Beck fell for it.  But, that’s what happens with Economic Hypochondria.”

I have to agree with Wesbury on Glenn Beck, he is a fear monger.  Not only that but the other day while driving and bored out of my head I listened to his show.  He spent his time trying to convince us of ancient civilizations that were present in America even before the Indians.  Right.  That is straight out of the pages of the Book of Mormon, the church Beck adheres to.  Evangelical Christians know better.  We should know better than to fall for hyped up fear mongering no matter what the source.

Frankly I think some people will not be happy until we are in a depression.  This past recession has not been easy but we are pulling out of it.  While the recovery is slow there are some signs of hope.  My real fear is that we will talk ourselves out of a recovery by listening to stupid baseless theories and headline grabbing TV personalities.

As Christians we need to realize that even if we plunge into a depression God has not somehow vacated His throne.  Now is the time for Christian leaders to stand and announce that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.  Then we need to act on our words and begin walking by faith.

We need leadership.  Where are our leaders?  Be the leader of hope in your world today!

Mark Brooks

Founder and President

The Charis Group