I think I have every book George Barna has ever written and I have been to his conferences and heard him speak. I quote him a ton. I started following Ed Stetzer in the last year through Twitter and I try to read everything he writes as well. However I wonder if recent polls and surveys they have taken and written about could be wrong? Perhaps a better way to state it would be that the data they have amassed is being incorrectly interpreted and used.
The last time I questioned these two giants I immediately got a response from Ed Stetzer questioning my post. I had written on Jan. 19th following a Barna poll the following, “While I hate to go against two giants in Christian research I think we should not make wild assumptions just yet.” Ed responded by posting the following, “Thanks for the reminder not to make those “wild assumptions.” Of course, we could just poll over 1000 pastors and report the results. So, that is what we did. Crazy, I know. We figured they might know. Seems better than guesses or wild assumptions.”
My response back was that in the “we” I meant those who read their data. I further wrote that, “I do however stand by the fact that we ultimately will not know where giving landed for 2009 until months from now. Surveys, even as good as yours, still do not tell the full story. In this day of easy panic my point is that we need to respond wisely.”
Ed and I ended our back and forth agreeable. You can see that in the Jan. 19th post here. However I continued to think on this subject. Then the final edition of the Barna Update on the impact of the economy came out on February 8th. While it focused on donor’s attitudes and actions in the future it did cause me to go back and review the first post which reported that giving to churches would be off by 7% in 2009. I also re-read Stetzer’s study done by LifeWay Research and the articles mentioning it. As a result I have some questions.
Barna and Stetzer’s studies
Barna’s study was based upon surveying 1,114 pastors or church administrators. Ed Stetzer’s data was based upon just over 1,000 responses. Both were done professionally and across the board in terms of size, geography, denominations etc. So, how could they be wrong? Well, here is what is bothering me.
The timing of the poll seems premature. Barna.org states that for their study, “The interviews were conducted in October through December, 2009.” Would it not be safe to assume that most of those contacted by Barna were contacted before December? LifeWay’s study was conducted in early November of 2009.
The importance of this is that December for churches is typically the best month of donations out of the entire year. For many churches those last two to three weeks are the make or break in terms of meeting or exceeding budget. Holding a survey in the midst of the key quarter for giving is like declaring the winner of the Super Bowl after only half of the last quarter.
Since December is such a key month you would think that pollsters would want to include that data in their research. The reports by the two agencies give every appearance of being thorough and complete. Yet eliminating these key weeks could significantly change the out come of the study.
LifeWay Research reaches a different number than Barna. LifeWay Research asked, “Approximately what percentage are your calendar year 2009 offerings above/below 2008’s offerings? The answer they found was that through November 2009 giving was flat with a slight increase of (+0.2%)! This is vastly different from Barna’s prediction that giving will decline by 7%. It is also much different from the slant that most print publications gave to LifeWay’s data. Rather than reporting this as a positive it was reported as giving being flat. Again, this is without December’s data which is typically a huge month in terms of donations.
Even without the last few weeks of ‘09 giving reported the two reports have reached vastly different conclusions. We are left to wonder which one is accurate. Are we to do like politicians and take the aggregate of the two? To me this again reinforces my belief that studies like this are premature and potentially harmful.
Historically giving to religion has weathered recessions better than other charities. Frankly a 7% decline would be unprecedented. The Lake Institute on Faith & Giving filed a report on religious giving during recessions. They reported that:
• Even in times of recession, religious congregations remain the number one recipient of all household dollars given to charity. Over 50% of all household charitable giving goes to religion, mainly congregations.
• In times of recession the decline in giving to religion when adjusted for inflation has been -0.1% compared to an average growth in non-recession years of 2.8%.
• Giving to religion fell in 6 of the 12 recession years and did not fall in any year that was not a recession year.
• In the 4 recessions that lasted 8 months or more giving to religion fell by 1.4% when adjusted for inflation.
Projections by others are showing less of a decline. The Association of Professional Fund Raisers reported last week that “Researchers at Boston College’s Center on Wealth and Philanthropy have developed the first model designed to estimate future charitable giving by households on a quarterly basis and have put it to a successful test run. According to the researchers, their data estimates U.S. household charitable giving for calendar year 2009 will total between $216-218 billion (current dollars), representing a decline of between 4.8 percent and 5.7 percent from the 2008 total of $229 billion.” Since giving to religion historically does better than other charities EVEN during years of decline could we not postulate that giving to churches while off will be better than Barna’s 7% decline?
Giving to the SBC’s Cooperative Program declined slightly. The SBC’s Cooperative Program is the way they fund the work of their denomination and is based upon what churches send to them. Typically churches give a percentage of their undesignated donations to the denomination. Thus CP giving is a good indication of this particular denominations increase or decrease in their churches. While this is only one denomination it is significant that the decline they see is less than what has been anticipated. Baptist Press reported on Feb. 1, 2010 that, “Year-to-date contributions through the Southern Baptist Convention’s Cooperative Program are .63 percent below the same time frame last year.” The same release reported that, “During the last fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2008 — Sept. 30, 2009), Cooperative Program receipts for the year declined 2.23 percent and combined CP and designated giving for the year declined 3.65 percent.” Could the SBC set the precedent for what might be the over all percent of decline?
So why the fuss? What does it matter? Here is why…
The prediction of huge declines in giving will continue to cause churches to be overly cautious in plans and actions. As a result many churches will miss an opportunity for growth. Many will delay ministries only to find out in hind site that they could have indeed moved forward. We will move from being people of faith to being people of the poll. All such planning based upon man’s theories will lead to failure. In the times we live in we can not afford to fail.
Let me end by quoting what I wrote back on January 19th on this same subject. I said then, “Here is my counsel. Weigh what is happening around you. I am not saying to ignore this recession and its lingering impact. However don’t let surveys and polls keep you from moving forward out of fear for what others are experiencing. We have clients in the middle of Michigan that are growing numerically and financially AND building new buildings. Don’t be overly swayed by the crisis of another church and assume that you will experience what they experience. In the end it is not what the survey or poll says, but the final tally. The real question is whether or not your vision is compelling enough that your members will find ways to support it. Good vision always trumps bad economy!
Mark Brooks
Founder and President
The Charis Group